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Friday, 15 February 2008 13:13
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 Will Voters Pass Florida's
Marriage Amendment?
By William Butte
Now that the Florida Marriage Protection Amendment – a constitutional amendment targeting the rights of all unmarried couples – will be on the November ballot, what's the chance it will get the 60 percent voter approval needed for passage?
Unfortunately, the probability is too high to ignore.
On the plus side, of the eight states with similar marriage amendments on their midterm 2006 ballots, four – including the red states of Virginia, South Dakota and Colorado – passed their amendments by less than 60 percent voter approval.
Meanwhile, Arizona voters narrowly rejected their amendment, due in part to the sizeable percentage of savvy cohabiting seniors who realized it could be used to jeopardize their right to, for example, visit each other in the hospital or to make medical decisions as domestic partners. Coincidently, U.S. census figures for 2000 show that nearly the same percentage of households in Florida were occupied by cohabiting couples (10.4 percent) as in Arizona (10.7 percent).
Also on the plus side, while Florida's Republican Party helped finance the effort to get the marriage amendment on the ballot, a CNN/Opinion poll taken in November of 1099 GOP voters registered in Florida found that about 1 in 5 answered "yes" when asked if same-sex marriages should be recognized as legally valid.
Likewise positive, if "maverick" Republican John McCain - the man who championed campaign finance reform; referred to Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson as "agents of intolerance;" supports federal funding for embryonic stem cell research and citizenship for "illegal" immigrants; and refuses to support amending the U.S. Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriages – becomes his party's nominee for president, that might help suppress the turnout of conservatives and evangelicals who would support the amendment but strongly dislike McCain.
As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton has drawn out an unprecedented number of women voters during the primaries and caucuses, while Barak Obama has done the same with younger voters and voters who think of themselves as progressives - these voters are usually more sympathetic to human rights issues and therefore likelier to vote against a constitutional challenge to the rights of all unmarried couples.
Even three recent polls taken by a Republican-oriented public relations firm show fewer than 60 percent of Floridians support the amendment.
However – and the minus side starts here – those same polls show that amendment supporters plus undecided voters equal a few percentage points more than the 60 percent needed for the amendment to pass. Now consider that final vote tallies in Arizona and South Dakota - the only two states where initial polls showed a lack of support for marriage amendments by a majority of voters - showed that undecided voters in both states finally voted in favor of the amendments, which allowed South Dakota's amendment to narrowly pass.
But a big monkey wrench to defeating the amendment could inadvertently come from the California Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments March 4 in the Golden State's legal battle over same-sex marriage. And a ruling must come within 90 days. Of course a ruling favoring marriage equality for same-sex couples would likely stimulate Florida conservatives to come out to vote for the marriage amendment, whether McCain is nominated or not.
Two Florida groups are working to defeat the amendment and ensure that the rights of all unmarried couples in the Sunshine State won't be challenged in the future. If you'd like to help, please visit the Web sites listed below.
Fairness for all Families
www.fairnessforallfamilies.org
Florida Red and Blue
www.FloridaRedandBlue.com or
www.MySpace.com/flredandblue
Toll-free number 1-877-FL-VOTE-NO
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